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LETTER FROM DUBAI: The Russians are bringing a new blend of bling


COMMENTS

A chav Russian party does not an economy make.  Read all comments »

Dubai is supposedly on the verge of fading away, having been revealed as a mirage. Bankers are deserting its financial centre in droves as the sands close in, flying back home for good as the economy collapses, deals dry up and their employers show them the door.

Nobody seems to have told VTB Capital. The investment banking arm of VTB Group, Russia’s second largest bank, threw quite a party here last week to celebrate the opening of its first office in the Middle East.

First they wheeled out a Bolshoi opera singer in the swanky Godolphin Ballroom at Emirates Towers hotel. Her bare shoulders hardly conformed to the Dubai government’s recently promulgated dress guidelines for foreigners, which frown on naked flesh.

But any hopes that she might be arrested mid-act, sparing the assembled bankers her ear-splitting high notes, proved unfounded. The party then moved over to the road, still courtesy of VTB, to the upmarket Cavalli nightclub, which opened last month. Cavalli is a top Italian fashion designer. Or something like that. Anyway his line in tasteless bling and chandeliers the size of pyramids has few rivals even in a city that swims in vulgarity.

In other words it’s business as usual in Dubai. VTB, and Cavalli presumably, have opened here for a reason. They know that the Gulf has huge potential, that oil is not going to go out of style, and that Dubai is still the city to be seen in.

They’re not the only ones. True, a load of international banks and (increasingly) regional houses have kicked people out over the last few months. Some firms have closed altogether, plenty more are rocky, and many redundant bankers have given up looking for new jobs here and slunk out of the country. Regional M&A has fallen off a cliff, private equity deal flow has subsided and share prices are well under half their levels of a year ago.

But for anyone who’s still here, and that’s the majority of people, the mood is far from gloomy and the party goes on. There’s an increasing focus on Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, which have not been as badly hit by the economic crisis as Dubai, and there’s no shortage of refinancing and restructuring work around the whole region.

The medium-term outlook looks good to many bankers and, as the region recovers, Dubai is likely to come back up with it.

VTB’s confidence is shared by plenty of others. A former head of asset management of a major regional bank is planning to launch his own hedge fund based in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC). A broker that set up in an unfashionable part of town two years ago, because DIFC rents were astronomic, is now planning to buy an office in the there because prices there have halved.

You write off the entrepreneurial spirit of Dubai’s bankers at your peril. Nothing keeps them down for long. Not even having to listen to opera.

 

COMMENTS

Bayt Al Mal, Asset Management,  Mon 29 Jun 09

The volatility of opinions of Dubai can only be matched by the movement of the regional markets. A recovery is steadily underway but the price of everything from Real Estate to Cavalli Mineral water was way way off the scales. It seemed the illusion of Dubai rested on making people believe in a dream ... which is very different from realising the dream itself. Dubai still has a long way to go, and the development of any great city takes more than a couple of years. London, New York, Hong Kong, Tokyo etc took decades to become the urban centres they are now.

I'm surprised there's no mention of Qatar in this article either. I think Doha is going to play an increasingly important role in the region, including the provision of financial services.

In the meantime, I'm taking the opportunity to get myself a couple of apartments at the Crown Marina for 45% of the going rate last year.

Add your comment »

John, Trading,  Mon 29 Jun 09

There was an article about Qatar in the Guardian or Observer earlier this month. I'll dig it up and post it hear when I find it.

Add your comment »

Choosy, Research,  Mon 29 Jun 09

It's "here" John. Don't you know that we're having a day of grammatical pedantry?

Add your comment »

Jahn, Capital Markets,  Mon 29 Jun 09

A chav Russian party does not an economy make.
Call me a cynic but as someone who spent the past few years pouring over the data, I call bull on the whole region. No industry, no innovation, no patents, no resources except oil, terrible treatment of half their workforce. Lets look at the figures once more for a giggle. NASDAQ Dubai after 5 years of the most ludicrous bull market in history has a tub thumping 15 listed shares ! (including NASDAQ OMX). Of these only 3 trade regularly.

http://www.nasdaqdubai.com/marketdata/marketdata_eq.html

My personal feeling is the Western banks are only opening up anything there for reciprocity. They have no interest in investing/doing local deals/building a financial center only in making the contacts so they can get access to the oodles of cash sitting around for projects elsewhere or saving their as (Citi, Barclays). I'm much more bullish on Brazil, Indian (democratic, young) than Russian, China (demographic time bombs, autocratic).

Add your comment »

Bayt Al Mal, Asset Management,  Tue 30 Jun 09

Thanks John, I'd be interested in having a read. Otherwise, there's good news flow from regional investment banks like EFG-Hermes, Shuaa and Global Investment House who cover the issues pretty well. Credit Suisse produced a good report on Qatar back in May which predicts 8.9% growth in 2009. For anyone that's been to Doha, it's almost like a ghost town, but behind the closed doors of the sparsely located office blocks there a great deal of deal making going on.

Does anyone have an indication of what's going on in Kuwait?

Add your comment »

John, Trading,  Tue 30 Jun 09

Beyond oil: a Switzerland in the sands

Petro-dollars are not enough for Qatar: as the west struggles, the reserved and complex emirate is turning to finance. By Ruth Sunderland in Doha

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2009/jun/07/global-economy-qatar-oil-gulf

Add your comment »

Marcia McPherson, Private Equity / Venture Capital,  Fri 03 Jul 09

I want to know where in Dubai is a good company to apply for jobs as I was made redundant last year Nov and have been looking for jobs in Private Equity in Dubai but to no avail. I cannot understand why everyone is talking about Dubai the place to be and plenty of jobs when my experience has thought be different.

My experience is managing FOF investing and PA to MD why oh why is it so hard to find even a PA job? I've even had some experience is Office Management and Operations,somebody please let me know if you know any companies that are employing anyone.

Add your comment »

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